I try to avoid offering predictions about North Korea, but here is one I’m willing to stake my reputation on: the Kremlinology and palace intrigues over North Korea’s succession struggle will supply generations of plotlines for TV dramas. For the good of us all, and of the North Koreans in particular, pray that all will be filmed on location at Mandsundae. The good news–for those who seek the regime’s self-subversion, as well as for lovers of Ancient Romans and modern...

I snuck out during my lunch hour and caught the last half of Hill’s appearance (with Amb. DiTrani at his side), and spoke to my extremely well-placed source. I also picked up copies of the statements by Reps. Hyde and Lantos. Hyde’s, in particular, is a blockbuster. I don’t have time to write it all up now, but will do so later. Here are your headlines: 1. Hyde thinks the Beijing statement is a blueprint for Agreed Framework II, and...

Maintenance problems at the USFK? I’m always suspicious when I see the anti-war media banging the “hollow army” drum, so I’ll withhold full judgment until I read the GAO report. Which, as this point, might be never. The answer may be to remove the stocks entirely. I see few circumstances under which we’d want to be involved in a ground war in Korea. Our ground war contingency plan for Korea should be limited to the rescue and evacuation of American...

The Washington Post reports that Chris Hill, laying the groundwork for his testimony before the House International Relations Committee today, is stressing the importance of full disclosure by the North Koreans: With the fragile framework of a nuclear agreement in hand, President Bush’s envoys now plan to push North Korea to begin disclosing the extent and locations of its secret development programs right away to test the sincerity of Pyongyang’s commitment to give up its pursuit of atomic weapons. As...

The Washington Times reports: North Korea may call a congress before the end of the year to select a successor to leader Kim Jong Il, the Russian news agency ITAR-Tass reported Wednesday. Citing “a reliable diplomatic source in Pyongyang,” North Korea’s capital, the news agency reported that the selection of the nation’s next leader by a regular congress of the Korean Workers’ Party would ensure political and social stability in the country. “If the name of the present leader’s successor...

After years of silence about human rights, best embodied by disgraced U.N. Special Envoy Maurice Strong and disgraced U.N.H.C.R. chief Ruud Lubbers, the new face of the United Nations on North Korea is Special Rapporteur Vitit Muntarbhorn, and what an improvement he is over the other two: “The general sentiment is that the situation in 2005 remains critical. There is a drastic shortfall of food produced in the country and possible humanitarian aid from outside,” the report says. It calls...

The House International Relations Committee Will Hold a Hearing on the six-party talks tomorrow. Ambassador Chris Hill will testify. The provocative question Congress asks is whether the agreed statement constitutes “old wine in new bottles,” implying a comparison to the Agreed Framework. This deal is already in trouble in Congress. I’ll try to go, but it’s an incredibly busy week, so no promises.

The Reality of Famine: This report is two years old, but I don’t recall having seen it before. The witness is a Japanese-Korean who escaped after the last great famine: “In winter during the peak of the famine in 1994, I remember seeing heaps of bodies being thrown off at a station. They had died on the journey. “There were dead bodies everywhere that winter, children, women and especially the old. “The bodies would be left over the winter. The...

I think Andy Jackson, a/k/a the Flying Yangban, has more work for the Human Rights Commission: When my wife and I went up to the loan officer and asked about it. He politely informed us that foreigners can’t get loans. He was so confident in that assertion he didn’t even have to consult anyone. Because my wife isn’t working (baby due in January) she couldn’t get a loan either. I’m dead serious about this. I hope he files a complaint,...

A Chinese warship has aimed one of its guns at a Japanese P-3 near a disputed gas field. I suspect we haven’theard the last of this.

Either you believed North Korea’s markets and food price hikes represented reform, or you believed they represented the state’s attempt to stay ahead of the disintegration of its own failing system. To the extent there was reform, the L.A. Times reports that the experiment appears to be over: SEOUL — Rolling back some of its economic reforms, North Korea is banning the sale of rice and other grains at private markets and strengthening its old communist-style public distribution system under...

As much as I sympathize with the court’s sentiment, this NY Times story suggests activism in the extreme: TOKYO, Sept. 30 – A Japanese court on Friday handed a rare victory to opponents of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s visits to a war shrine, ruling that the visits violated Japan’s constitutional separation of religion and the state. Experts said the ruling by the Osaka High Court probably would not force the Japanese prime minister to stop visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, which...

It has all the outward signs of a classic Washington leak: The U.S. Forces Korea are reportedly mulling additional troop cuts after Seoul announced it will trim its own forces down from 680,000 to 500,000 by the year 2020. “When the government announced its plans to cut 180,000 men from the armed forces, the USFK internally started to acknowledge the need for cuts as well,” a high-ranking government source said Monday. The source said there were some among USFK brass...

We are still reaping the harvest of all that sunshine: [Abductee rights activist] Choi Sung-yong said Monday an NIS official told him on Sept. 29 “that my office in Seoul is exposed to a threat of terrorist attacks from North Korea. He said he had information and phone calls from North Korean defectors saying the North is trying to harm me. Choi had several warnings of a possible North-Korean terrorist attack from the NIS, but last week’s warning was the...

A Chinese warship has aimed one of its guns at a Japanese P-3 near a disputed gas field. I suspect we haven’theard the last of this.

Nicholas Eberstadt is no fan of the “breakthrough” agreed statement with North Korea: Contrary to conventional wisdom, which holds the North Korean state to be an unremittingly hostile “negotiating partner,” history actually demonstrates that Pyongyang can be a highly obliging interlocutor under certain very specific conditions. All that is necessary to “get to yes” with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is to concede every important point demanded by the North Korean side while sacrificing vital interests of one’s...

Soon-Hee Park, the refugee who crawled out of North Korea on the stumps of her amputated feet has sent out a letter: “That b***** will try to run away to South Korea unless her feet and calves are rotted and crumbled,” the prison guards used to say while mercilessly striking me. Each time I swore to myself, “I will crawl to the South, if I have to, and tell about today. I will tell all the crimes committed by this...

Norbert Vollertsen sends: The leader of an underground church and his familymembers were arrested last July. The details are as follows: Place: Peeyeong Gun, North Pyongan Province Arrested: Moon, Seong Jeun(age 64), the leader of the church and some or all of his 8 brothers and sisters. Arresting Authority: Local branch of the State Security Agency. Charge: Attempt to overthrow the government. Moon was regarded as the “ringleader of their clandestine activities. Status: Interrogation was nearly completed as of early...