Search Results for: Lankov

October 10, 2010

Of Conferences and Reports … and Reports from Conferences

10-10-10 has been another busy day for North Korea watchers, what with the military parade being broadcast live from Pyongyang and the passing of Hwang Jang-yop. But I want to mention several things I’ve spotted over the last weeks and months and the upcoming NKnet conference in Washington, D.C., on October 21st. This will be in no particular order. _______________________________ In the beginning of September Tim Peters chaired a panel and other OFK favorites (e.g., Chuck Downs) spoke at a...

Categories Activism/Defectors/Human Rights/Refugees
September 20, 2010

This is how we seize defeat from the jaws of victory: Anxiety is rising on both sides of the Pacific that tightened sanctions and joint military exercises – what U.S. officials have called “strategic patience” – could, if continued indefinitely, embolden hard-line factions in the North to strike out against South Korea or to redouble efforts to proliferate weapons of mass destruction. [WaPo, John Pomfret] It’s not the talking that worries me. It’s what always follows the talking. __________________________ Had...

Categories Anju Links
May 24, 2010

Overthrowing Kim: A Capitalist Manifesto

[Originally published at The New Ledger, May 2010; edited for brevity in October 2017] Within the next 48 hours, South Korea is expected to announce that North Korea torpedoed and sank the warship Cheonan and killed 46 of her crew. Among the evidence the multinational investigation will cite will be the North Korean serial number on the torpedo’s propeller, recovered from the ocean floor. The sinking of the Cheonan may be the most serious North Korean provocation since 1968 —...

Categories Capitalism/Regime Change
May 11, 2010

Cheonan Incident Updates

Andrei Lankov talks about China’s motives for supporting Kim Jong Il and predicts that in due course, it will be business as usual all over again: At all probability, this time we will see another repetition of the old game. Chinese will insist that North Korea should come back to the six-party talks (Beijing’s pet project), and also should restrain itself. Kim Jong-il will claim his sovereign rights to run his state as he pleases while inquiring how much aid...

Categories Cheonan Incident
May 4, 2010

Götterdämmerung Watch

Today, I catch up with KCJ and the rest of you who’ve commented on Kurt Achin’s intriguing new VOA report on the prospects for regime collapse: For the first time in years, international experts say North Korea’s isolated government is increasingly frail, and potentially unstable. Part of the reason, they say, is Pyongyang’s attempt at currency reform last year. [….] “I think there’s some increasing views in Seoul that after 20 years of wrongly predicting the demise of North Korea,...

Categories Regime Change
April 19, 2010

For North Korean Spies, Sending Refugees to the Gulag Is Entry Level Work

While most of my allotted blogging time has been consumed by following the Cheonan Incident, several other k-blogs covered the story of one “Kim,” a South Korean, who volunteered in 1999 to work for North Korean intelligence, hunt down and rat out defectors hiding in China, and send them blissfully off to death, or a fate worse than. He also agreed to spy on activists helping the refugees, and on the South Korean military. “Kim” has since been arrested by...

Categories Refugees/The Fifth Column
April 17, 2010

Avoiding the Next Korean War

Of course, it is premature for any government to assign blame for the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan before reviewing the detailed findings of a completed investigation. But for many South Koreans, the conclusion is already inescapable that North Korea did it. That’s my hunch, too. If I had to pick a favorite theory, it would involve North Korea’s semi-submersibles — they operate well in shallow waters, are hard to see on radar, can move quickly on the...

Categories Cheonan Incident
April 5, 2010

Götterdämmerung Watch

Writing in Foreign Policy, Marcus Noland writes about discontent and dissent in North Korea, and the impact of The Great Confiscation as a catalyst for it. The surveys’ results suggest that the regime’s discomfort might be well founded. Countries such as North Korea, where people routinely hide their true opinions, are prone to sudden, explosive political mobilizations like the ones that swept Eastern and Central Europe in the late 1980s. Those mobilizations happen when nascent expressions of discontent cascade —...

Categories NK Economics/Propaganda/Regime Change/Subversion
March 8, 2010

8 March 2010

The fact that Japan has its own Roh Moo Hyun now is both more and less troubling than Roh’s own presidency. On the one hand, Hatoyama wasn’t elected on a wave of anti-Americanism, but because voters were understandably tired of one-party rule. If Hatoyama doesn’t improve conditions in Japan, he may not hold power for long. On the other hand, we have much more air and naval power in Japan than in Korea, and whereas Korea is strategically expendable to...

Categories Miscellaneous
March 1, 2010

Alejandro Cao de Benós Interview – Part 4

Surprisingly, my favorite Cao quote from the fourth and final installment isn’t even about North Korea: “In general, U.S. cities frighten me, after 7 p.m. all the white people go home, and black people and beggars take to the streets.” Cao also talks about Robert Park. Once again, thanks to Enzo Reale for allowing me to publish this. Please visit his blogs at 1972 and Asiaeditorni, or on Twitter.

Categories Interviews/Useful Idiocy
February 13, 2010

Great Confiscation Updates

Newspapers around the world are now coming to grips with North Korea’s most conspicuous policy disaster since the Great Famine, and the first one in which a state that has long claimed infallibility had to admit error: The policy backfired. Prices skyrocketed as market activities ground to a near halt, while state-run stores failed to meet the demand. In recent weeks, Web sites based in Seoul that collect news from sources inside North Korea have reported starvation in some towns...

Categories Uncategorized
December 30, 2009

Review: Nothing to Envy — Ordinary Lives in North Korea, by Barbara Demick

December 30, 2009:   I’ve been looking forward to this one. It arrived in the mail yesterday afternoon, and I’ll be nibbling away at this a few pages at a time during my commutes, posting short updates as I hit interesting passages (this way, I don’t labor under the guilt of having written nothing about it for weeks if work or family obligations prevent me from finishing it). Having flipped through a few pages, I see a work that sits...

Categories Books & Films/Media Criticism
December 12, 2009

Once Again, More Slowly: Isolating the North Korean People Only Helps Kim Jong Il

Now it’s a Japanese government minister suggesting that Japan shouldn’t grant visas to North Korean athletes. I fear an important distinction is being lost here. On the one hand, I strongly agree with the need to isolate the North Korean regime financially — to do no harm, to refuse to sustain or legitimize an evil system of government. On the other hand, I recognize that maintaining the isolation of the North Korean people actually helps sustain that system. Because the...

Categories Deprogramming/Japan & Korea
November 16, 2009

Phillip Goldberg Quits as N. Korea Sanctions Coordinator

Goldberg had been highly effective in his post, and his departure is a very, very worrying sign about the direction of the administration’s policy: A diplomatic source in Washington said Sunday Goldberg has been appointed as assistant secretary of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the State Department. Voice of America reported that the White House informed the Senate of Goldberg’s new post last month, and a confirmation hearing will take place Thursday. South Korean and U.S. government officials...

Categories Money Laundering/Proliferation/Sanctions
September 30, 2009

Must Read: North Korea Contingency Planning and U.S.-ROK Cooperation

Although it seems to have genetic origins in plenty of other things I’ve read by Lankov, Noland, etc., combining and updating some already excellent works only makes the Asia Society’s / U.S.-Korea Institute’s final product even better. I’ll quote the executive summary and let you read the rest on your own: – Current internal dynamics in North Korea suggest a growing need for international cooperation on contingency planning, led by policy coordination between South Korea and the United States. –...

Categories Reconstruction/Regime Change
June 15, 2009

Did Kim Jong Un Try to Assassinate Kim Jong Nam?

Life imitates Austin Powers! An aide to Kim Jong Un, the third and youngest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, planned to assassinate Kim Jong Nam, the eldest son of Kim Jong Il, KBS television reported Monday.  The plan was foiled by Chinese authorities, KBS said, citing a Chinese government source.  [Kyodo News] Well, maybe, but it’s too good not to blog.  Other Kim Jong Un rumors hold that he was actually in China recently as a “special...

Categories Kremlinology/WTF?
June 12, 2009

U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874 (Updated with Analysis)

For better or for worse, they passed it. As with UNSCR 1695 and 1718 before it, this will be as effective as the implementation. Much has been said about how China undermined both of those resolutions, and that is true, but too little has been said about how much the U.S. State Department also did to undermine them for the sake of a failure called Agreed Framework II. The good news is that this time, there are some early and...

Categories "United" Nations/Sanctions
May 21, 2009

Sunshine Death Watch

BUT WOULDN’T THAT BE NEEDLESSLY STRENUOUS?  South Korean conservatives call for their government to close down Kaesong before Kim Jong Il gets around to it.  Personally, I think things are going perfectly just as they are. THE GRAND NATIONALS ARE REALLY TWO PARTIES, to hear Andy Jackson describe Park Geun Hye’s efforts to keep her people out of President Lee’s government.  Fortunately for them, the left is even more fragmented and rudderless, because that and the fact of incumbency are...

Categories An Alliance?/Korean Politics/Sunshine