In Hong Kong, the state has outsourced the more petty forms of its thuggery to gangsters. On the mainland, tactics like these are well-established and, so far, presumably effective. But in a literate, educated, civil society, they have caused an angry backlash and further energized the protest movement. For how long? Only time will tell whether the protest movement or the state has more persistence, but in the end, people who have lived in an advanced and vibrant civil society aren’t about to consign themselves...

I suppose events will eventually validate my initial impressions of Xi Jinping, but that validation would probably also mark the beginning of a long period of economic and political decline for Hong Kong, and consequently, for all of China. If you repress a place like Hong Kong, the smartest ones will leave. Maybe we could convince them to resettle Detroit.

As we speak, an extraordinary, courageous, and dignified popular movement is rising in Hong Kong, and the state’s reaction to that movement is increasingly menacing. It may well be the case that confronting Xi Jinping publicly could dig him in, strengthen nationalist and xenophobic elements, and be counterproductive, but silence will be read as license. Right now, Xi is weighing the costs and benefits of suppressing the protests violently. The President could do much to deter such a course with...