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December 2, 2013

Merrill Newman’s real “offensive” was booking a tour of North Korea in the first place.

Just last week, I predicted that we were entering the provocation phase of North Korea’s mood cycle. The day after I wrote that we’d soon read of “satellite theater” and steam coming from reactors, the IAEA said that North Korea had restarted Yongbyon. The day after that, North Korea released a hostage video of an 85-year old tourist with a heart condition, after forcing him to sign a “confession” to war crimes that he’d allegedly committed 60 years ago. Or at least,...

Foreigners in N. Korea

November 27, 2013

North Korea approaching provocation phase of its “vicious cycle”

North Korea’s bipolar cycle is now familiar to most Korea watchers, including the President of South Korea. The North pursues its nuclear weapons capability with consistent determination in all phases of that cycle, but not always with consistent ostentation. There are periodic acts of satellite theater — a new excavation here, a new launch pad there, or steam from a cooling tower. Words vacillate between conciliation (often cryptic) and belligerence (but mostly, belligerence). You can’t really time North Korea’s cycles...

Propaganda/WMD

November 26, 2013

Open Sources, November 26, 2013

~ 1 ~ U.N. UPDATE: “The United Nations unanimously adopted a resolution that denounces North Korea’s worsening human rights violations, including its brutal treatment of political prisoners in the communist country, Seoul’s foreign ministry said Wednesday.” China, Russia, Cuba, Iran, and Venezuela did not participate, which I suppose is less bad than voting against or abstaining. The vote by the Third Committee is not a vote by the General Assembly or the Security Council, nor does it adopt the findings...

Anju Links

November 25, 2013

How the Iran deal affects North Korea policy

You would think that the world’s biggest government would be capable of handling more than one global proliferation crisis at a time. Unfortunately, Washington isn’t wired for that kind of bandwidth. Major policy initiatives require political capital, and it will take all of this administration’s dwindling reserves to fend off a new round of Iran sanctions in Congress.* The administration couldn’t defend a deal with North Korea now if it had one, and that goes double for the sort of...

Axis of Evil/Iran/Sanctions

November 24, 2013

Was Kim Jong Un behind the plot to smuggle meth into New York?

Last week, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York released an indictment of five men for conspiring to smuggle North Korean methamphetamine to New York. The meth was of exceptionally high quality — between 96% and 99% pure, depending on the source — and in large amounts. An initial “dry run” transaction consisted of 30 kilograms, later seized by Thai and Filipino authorities. The next shipment would have weighed in at 100 kilograms, for which the dealers...

Anju Links/Drugs & N Korea

November 22, 2013

U.N. Commission should find China responsible for crimes against humanity, too.

China is denying reports that it arrested 15 North Korean refugees near Kunming. According to the Chosun Ilbo, the refugees have been moved to areas near the North Korean border. Some may have been repatriated already, along with other refugees rounded up near Shenyang. If so, their fate inside North Korea is grim. As the Chinese government already knows, and has for years. I don’t know what, exactly, I should read from the fact that North Korea is loudly calling for China...

China/Refugees

November 21, 2013

Say, do you suppose Merrill Newman bought the wrong North Korea travel guide?

The San Jose Mercury News identifies the U.S. citizen arrested in North Korea three weeks ago — yes, that’s right — as Merrill Newman, age 85, of Palo Alto, California. He was arrested on October 26th, when the North Koreans pulled him off his flight out of Pyongyang Sunan before it took off. For whatever reason, we’re only just hearing about it now, although dozens more Americans might have entered North Korea since then, and might have benefited from knowing that the North Koreans...

Foreigners in N. Korea/Useful Idiocy

November 20, 2013

It’s time to ban travel to North Korea

In one form or another, the State Department has been cautioning Americans about travel to North Korea for years, but statistically, half of the U.S. population is of below average intelligence, and it often shows. That fact presents some complications for a government that feels a sense of duty to protect the safety of its citizens. Today, as Kenneth Bae’s health continues to decline in his North Korean prison cell, comes word that the North has taken another miguk hostage. Although...

Foreigners in N. Korea

November 20, 2013

Elle Magazine makes a morally retarded fashion statement about North Korea

When I first saw the report here that an Elle Magazine columnist had declared “North Korea chic” to be one of this year’s top fashion trends, I immediately assumed that someone was failing to appreciate someone’s rather tasteless parody. When Americans do think of North Korea, they often infantilize it. Tasteless parodies may be our third-most common reaction to North Korea, after apathy and passive disgust. Sadly, having seen the screenshot of Joe Zee’s post, I think Zee was seriously...

Media Criticism/Useful Idiocy/WTF?

November 19, 2013

How China and North Korea corrupt the people who report your news

Fred Hiatt, the Editorial Page Editor of The Washington Post, sounds the alarm about China’s selective denial of visas to journalists and academics to intimidate them into toeing the party line: It is deeply systematic and accepted as normal among China scholars to sidestep Beijing demands by using codes and indirections. One does not use the term ‘Taiwan independence,’ for example. It is ‘cross-strait relations.’ One does not mention Liu Xiaobo, the Nobel Peace Prize winner who sits in prison…....

Media Criticism

November 18, 2013

New documentaries show how N. Korea is changing, despite Kim Jong Un

Two new documentaries on North Korea are promising us brave and original journalism about life in North Korea, as the vast majority of North Koreans somehow live it. A long-time reader writes to tell me that the Heritage Foundation will be screening a new documentary, “The Defector,” on December 5th, at 5:30 p.m., and that Shin Dong Hyok will be in attendance. Here is how the film’s website describes it: Dragon is a human smuggler who leads North Korean defectors...

Books & Films

November 15, 2013

Sanctions, Sanctions-Busting, and the Limits of Incrementalism (updated)

In the years since Treasury dropped the hammer on Banco Delta Asia, North Korea has adapted to make itself less vulnerable to sanctions. It has decentralized its currency flows to different banks to make it harder for Treasury to cut just one weak link. This means that achieving the same effect we achieved in 2005 will take more time today, although – and this is really just an educated guess – a determined attack on North Korea’s access to hard...

Sanctions

November 14, 2013

Open Sources, November 14, 2013

~ 1 ~ KAESONG FAILWATCH: A new report from the Daily NK, containing an interview with an employee of a South Korean company that manufactures textiles in Kaesong, largely validates my post from last week. The bottom line: companies are hiding how much operations suffered from the five-month shutdown to prevent further damage to their business, such as the loss of customers who may seek more reliable suppliers. This, of course, is my cue to publicize the fact that while...

Anju Links

November 13, 2013

Charm Offensive Update: N. Korea calls S. Korea’s female president a “political prostitute.”

Yonhap has taken note of North Korea’s rather nasty reaction to Park Geun Hye’s visit to Europe, attacking her for such things as … traveling abroad, and … speaking foreign languages. Spin that one, Perestroika watchers!: Park Geun Hye again let loose a whole string of rubbish malignantly slandering the DPRK, urging it to “dismantle its nukes” and settle “human rights issues” during her recent trips to various countries of Europe. It is a fact well known to all...

North-South

November 12, 2013

Joongang Ilbo: N. Korea executes 80, mostly for thoughtcrimes

The Joongang Ilbo reports that North Korea has carried out a wave of executions in seven different provincial cities for such “crimes” such as watching South Korean soap operas, watching pornography, prostitution, and possession of a Bible. About 10 people were killed in each city, which included Wonsan in Kangwon Province, Chongjin in North Hamgyong Province, Sariwon in North Hwanghae Province and Pyongsong in South Pyongan. In Wonsan, eight people were tied to a stakes at a local stadium, had...

Human Rights

November 8, 2013

Open Sources, November 8, 2013

~ 1 ~ I HAVE A TERRIBLE FEELING ABOUT THIS: Every now and then, North Korea says something that my gut tells me is more true than false: North Korea’s security agency said Thursday it arrested a South Korean spy in Pyongyang who intended to rally anti-government forces, a claim that intelligence officials in Seoul quickly called ridiculous and groundless. [….] The North Korean security ministry said that the South Korean initially said...

Anju Links

November 7, 2013

Kaesong running at half-capacity as investors trickle away

When Kaesong reopened after a five-month shutdown, I speculated that the shutdown would have lingering adverse effects on some of the operations there — that some of the manufacturers would have lost suppliers and customers, experienced workers would not return, credit would be overextended, and machinery and materials would have degraded. Sure enough, Kaesong still hasn’t recovered from the shutdown. Contrary to South Korean government claims that it’s running at 80% capacity, the true figure is just 50%. That may be as good...

North-South/Sunshine

November 6, 2013

N. Korean military looking pretty decrepit these days.

North Korea’s nuclear weapons development is blazing ahead, but series of reports from North Korea suggest that its conventional forces are decaying, ill-disciplined, and even underfunded. First, a Hainan Class submarine chaser and a patrol boat sank in separate incidents off the coast of Wonsan (or, maybe the two ships collided; hey, it’s North Korea — who knows?). North Korea admits the loss of the 60s-vintage sub chaser. The North hasn’t given a casualty count, but showed Kim Jong un...

NK Military