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The demographics of defection are shifting:

since the currency reform, more middle-class North Koreans have been fleeing the North, a South Korean security official speculated.

A North Korean source on Tuesday said the currency reform alienated many people from the regime, and the spread of South Korean pop culture through videos and CDs clandestinely circulated in the North has also encouraged some middle and higher-class North Koreans to flee. In recent days, many people who lost their savings due to the currency reform have reportedly decided to flee.

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Kang Chol Hwan doesn’t think the Cheonan attack was worth it:

Overseas ethnic Koreans who have recently been to North Korea say that the attitude of senior North Korean officials has changed. Before the currency reform, they were arrogant and complained about foreign aid. But now they are very humble. Some senior officials reportedly entreated them to help, and the situation is so serious that not only ordinary people but high ranking officials have difficulty making ends meet. Military rations are stalled and troops live on corn and potatoes. All that leads to hairline cracks in Kim Jong-il’s authority.

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The composition of President Lee’s new cabinet doesn’t suggest that it’s about to go soft on North Korea.

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But if that’s so, why did South Korea just agree to a 5% pay hike for Kaesong workers Kim Jong Il?

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Wouldn’t it be smarter to … you know, get everyone out of Kaesong before they become hostages?

Seoul and Washington will simulate a rescue of South Koreans from the joint Kaesong Industrial Complex supposing they are held in North Korea once it closes down the industrial park. The drill will be part of an annual joint military exercise dubbed Ulchi Freedom Guardian on Aug. 16-26.

I’m just trying to imagine the wall of 23-millimeter fire those helicopters would have to fly through, or why subsidizing Kim Jong Il is worth the risk of a single American life. I can’t believe any responsible country would leave its citizens in a place where plans like this merit serious consideration. Enough, already. Bring them home.

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If Peter Lee is so positive that financial sanctions on banks that hold North Korean accounts are a proven failure, why does he feel so compelled to write another Asia Times rant about it every day? It almost seems as if he’s trying to convince himself of something ….

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Hey, here’s a concept! Why not put your hippie “peace forest” in one of these locations instead?

2 Responses

  1. Not sure how ‘expert’ the experts are, but the consensus seems to be that reunification will occur; it will benefit the RoK; and that it won’t happen soon. I guess I’m in the 9% who sees it happening in 3-5 years.

    Experts Predict Power Struggle When Kim Jong-il Dies

    Kim Jong-il’s death will result in a power struggle among various factions of the ruling clique in North Korea rather than a smooth succession for his designated heir Kim Jong-un, experts predict. The experts were responding to a survey by a group calling itself the World Futures Forum on prospects for North Korea and reunification of the Korean Peninsula.

    Some 52.3 percent of respondents predicted a power struggle if Kim dies in the near future. A mere 30 percent said his third son and heir apparent Jong-un will succeed his father, while 18.2 percent predicted that a third powerful person will take power.

    The experts believed even if he succeeds his father, Kim junior will find it difficult to concentrate all the power in his hands. Some 71.7 percent said he will share power with other figures, and 23.9 percent said he will be overthrown as the power struggle intensifies.

    “Kim Jong-un’s associates will eventually hold more power as he will have to rely on them because he is young and lacking in political and government experience,” the group said.

    As for reunification, half of the respondents predicted the nation will not be reunified in the next 20 years. Some 36.4 percent said reunification is possible within a decade, and 9.1 percent within five or even three years.

    Most or 62.2 percent of respondents said the North will collapse and be absorbed by the South. A whopping 87 percent even believed that the reunification will benefit South Korea to a great extent.

    A total of 46 North Korean affairs and unification experts from 23 universities, think tanks and media companies took part in the survey.

  2. Here’s an even better idea: Why not try to be like that young man and let South Korea deal peacefully with it’s northern neighbor, instead of trying to provoke violent reactions from it? Something that the USA NEVER does!